“How do you feel about futures options? Have you dabbled in that? I find future to be much more predictable in cyclical studies…”
To answer questions, I have done a few trades in futures. I am using the term futures to define any expiration beyond 4 months. My largest problem with futures is that it seems that I am paying a much higher premium for that possible volatility.
That is the long answer to say that I do not spend much time in futures, and here is why.
If I think that a stock is going to go up or down in the next two months, then I will buy an option (either call or put) to profit from that stock. If I think that a stock has the potential for the price to go up, but I don’t think it is going to happen for about another 6 months, then I will wait for about 4 months and play it as a short term option. Does this limit my opportunities of making a profit? YES; however, there are many short term trades out there that are good enough for me.
Like I said above, my large problem with futures, is that I feel that I am paying a high premium for the time value of that option. The other problem that I have is that it tends to tie up some of my capital for extended periods of time as if I had purchased a stock.
There is only a few reasons that I can think of to invest in futures. The first of these is if you think that a stock will go up a significant amount but in small increments (ie. a stock currently valued at $40 that you think is going to go to $55 by next December. You think that it is going to gain $1 to $1.50 a month. The 12 month out $50 call is probably going to cost you around $3.00 depending on the stock.) In that case you could make money on a futures purchase.
The other time that I would consider playing a future is in the tech industry where the release of some new technology could make their stock go way up, or if a competitor released the new technology first, their stock could go way down. In this case, I would look to buy a futures strangle.
If you are unsure what I strangle is, stay tuned, and I will get to them in my progression of options strategies. Bottom line, there is money to be made either way, I just prefer the short term because it costs less, does not tie up my capital, and I can wait and make the same trade later usually without paying the high premium. Good luck in the strategy that you choose.